The South African Weather Service (SAWS) expects partly cloudy and warm-to-cool conditions across much of the country during the Christmas and the New Year period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers are anticipated mainly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa.
“Thunderstorm activity is expected to occur primarily in the afternoons, although periods of increased moisture may result in morning showers in some areas.
“Much of the rainfall during this period will be associated with afternoon and evening thundershowers, which may at times be accompanied by heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds,” SAWS Senior Forecaster Jacqueline Modika said on Thursday, during a media briefing in Pretoria.
The South African Weather Service, through its Disaster Risk Reduction function, has released its latest seasonal climate outlook for the 2025/26 summer season, covering the period from December 2025 to April 2026.
The forecast indicates a transition toward a weak La Niña state, which is expected to influence rainfall and temperature patterns across the country.
La Niña refers to a climate pattern where the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal. This cooling changes global wind and weather patterns.
“It typically brings above-normal summer rainfall to the north-eastern parts of South Africa such as Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, parts of the North West and Free State.
“Climate model predictions suggest an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern parts of South Africa, particularly in the north-eastern summer rainfall regions,” Modika said.
These wetter-than-usual conditions are consistent with the typical impacts associated with La Niña episodes and are expected to persist into mid-to-late summer.
In terms of temperatures, minimum temperatures are forecast to be above-normal over most parts of the country, while daytime maximum temperatures are likely to be below-normal over the north-eastern regions, due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.
Above-normal maximum temperatures are, however, expected over parts of the south-western regions.
“From a Disaster Risk Reduction perspective, the anticipated rainfall may bring positive impacts for water resources and agriculture, but it also raises the risk of localised flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas, informal settlements, and regions with poor drainage infrastructure.
“Communities are urged to remain vigilant, especially during periods of persistent or intense rainfall. It is of utmost importance for the public, particularly vulnerable communities, to regularly consult credible weather forecast and warnings sources for developments and take appropriate action as part of their daily routine,” she said.
Such sources include radio, television and the South African Weather Service website and social media platforms.
“Yesterday’s impacts clearly demonstrate how quickly weather conditions can deteriorate once thunderstorms intensify. The South African Weather Service will continue to closely monitor evolving weather and climate conditions and will provide weekly updates and early warnings where necessary to support public safety and preparedness,” Modika said.
Residents are encouraged to:
- Seek shelter when thunderstorms approach,
- Move vehicles under cover where possible,
- Avoid driving through flooded roads,
- Report fallen trees, flooding or damage to municipal authorities.
- Avoid crossing flooded bridges,
- Stay informed by following official SAWS weather updates,
- Take necessary precautions during thunderstorm activity,
- Ensure festive travel plans consider changing weather conditions.
– SAnews.gov.za
